Weekly Forex Report by Odom & Frey Futures & Forex

What an amazing start of the year it has been.  We have seen volatility levels continue to increase even after volume came back up to normal levels.  Bernanke really through the market a curve ball last week by being as doveish as he was in his statement.  That doveish tone was in complete contrast to the hawkish nature of the FOMC minutes released the week before.  The Dollar has struggled in the face of those comments.  The Dollar is at a critical point right now and if the old lows are taken out we could see acceleration to the downside.  That being said we are trading with much shorter holding times and smaller position size in this environment.

General Market Comments

What an amazing start of the year it has been.  We have seen volatility levels continue to increase even after volume came back up to normal levels.  Bernanke really through the market a curve ball last week by being as doveish as he was in his statement.  That doveish tone was in complete contrast to the hawkish nature of the FOMC minutes released the week before.  The Dollar has struggled in the face of those comments.  The Dollar is at a critical point right now and if the old lows are taken out we could see acceleration to the downside.  That being said we are trading with much shorter holding times and smaller position size in this environment.

Europe : Euro, Pound, Swiss Franc 

 

 
EUR/USD:  The Euro has really just drifted sideways with a slight upward bias for the last week.  If we can break out above 1.50 then the next bull leg should develop.  We are using this resistance level above the highs to position short term short trades with stop and reverse orders above the highs. 

 

GBP/USD:  This week we expect to see the cable begin to turn higher.  We are buyers below 1.9555 with stops below last weeks lows. 

 

USD/CHF:  This pair has suffered along with the Yen as the carry trade has been unwound.  We are also looking for short term long entries near 1.09 with stops below 1.0875. 

 

Asia : Yen, Australian Dollar

 

USD/JPY:  As I mentioned this pair has suffered greatly due to carry trade liquidation.  We are seeing signs that this is now oversold and we are buyers below 107.89 with stops below 107.21.  

 

AUD/USD:  With Gold, oil, and grains as strong as they are we see this pair continuing to gain against the dollar.  At this time we are flat but will look to buy into pullback when they come. 

 

North America : Canadian

 

USD/CAD: The cad has been strong since Christmas; Friday’s labor figures pushed this pair above 1.02.  We are looking to sell any rallies over 1.02 this week with stops above 1.0255.  We expect to see this market form a near term double top.   

 

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Email the author directly:
Derek@OdomandFrey.com
 
Derek Frey
Odom & Frey Futures & Forex
645 Mayport Rd. Suite 4 E
Atlantic Beach, Florida 32266
toll free: 866.636.6378
international 904-247-0232
www.odomandfrey.com
 
 

Derek Frey, O & F’s co-founder and head trader, is one of the leading experts in the Futures & FX markets. He is regularly quoted by The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, The National Post, and Reuters. Mr. Frey has also published articles for Option Trader Magazine and Pit News. His market comments are sought after by traders around the world and he can be heard on etvfutures every week.