China’s Contraction Sets Bearish Tone for Aussie and Kiwi

The action in the Forex markets this week suggests that although theU.S. economy is still showing signs of weakness, conditions may even beworsening in Europe and Asia.

The action in the Forex markets this week suggests that although the U.S. economy is still showing signs of weakness, conditions may even be worsening in Europe and Asia.

The weakness in Asia was led by the lower than expected GDP number out of China. The cause of the lower number was a decline in exports. If the U.S. economy doesn’t get better then look for China’s economy to continue to contract.  This could lead to spillover weakness in Australia and New Zealand.

This week it was announced that the Euro Zone suffered another contraction in the economy as industrial production continued to fall.. Additional news that inflation is declining is causing traders to believe that the worst is yet to come.

The economy isn’t the only issue hurting the Euro. Investors are losing confidence in the European Central Bank’s ability to pull the Euro Zone out of the recession because of policymaker indecision. Some ECB policymakers believe that interest rates should be allowed to fall under 1% in order to stimulate the economy. Others want to keep rates at 1% or higher because they fear banks will lose their incentive to make loans to each other.Without a clear path to follow regarding the next interest rate action in May, investors are choosing to bailout of the Euro.

ECB President Trichet failed on Friday to shed any light on the situation. He even backed out of revealing the specifics of the ECB’s new quantitative easing plan. Like I said a few weeks ago, with so many economies in the European Union, I don’t think the ECB knows where to place the economic stimulation.

News that Ireland had its credit rating reduced was just another sign that the Euro Zone was facing more banking problem exposure. Ireland joins Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy as countries facing severe financial system problems. Don’t forget that although the International Monetary Fund is ready to provide aid to the emerging markets in Eastern and Central Europe, the ECB is ultimately responsible for their problems.

Because of the mounting financial problems regarding the European Union from now until the European Central Bank meeting on May 7 could be the most important time period for the Euro in its existence.

Continue to look for more weakness in the Swiss Franc. On Friday the Swiss National Bank reiterated its stance for a weaker currency. The developing weakness in the Euro Zone economy could push the Swiss Franc higher relative to the Euro which may trigger aggressive intervention action by the SNB. Gold could rally sharply higher if they intervene again.

The Australian Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar could start to see a rapid decline. News that China’s GDP is contracting could prove to be detrimental to the Aussie and New Zealand economies. China is expected to curtail its spending activity which means fewer exports from these two countries.

Lower inflation in New Zealand could mean another round of stimulus by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Since it is not too keen on interest rate cuts because of the time they take to work through the economy, look for more aggressive quantitative easing or an intervention to help stimulate the economy.

So while the U.S. economy may have problems of its own, traders are still willing to bet that it pulls out of its recession before the global community. Continue to look for the U.S. Dollar to post strong gains against its counterparts. The Euro especially remains the most vulnerable to a severe decline.

James A. Hyerczyk has been actively involved in the futures markets since 1982. He has worked in various capacities within the futures industry from technical analyst to commodity trading advisor. Using W. D. Gann Theory as his core methodology, Mr. Hyerczyk incorporates combinations of pattern, price and time to develop his daily, weekly and monthly analysis. His firm, J.A.H. Research and Trading publishes The Forex Pattern Price Time Report... More

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