NZD USD Likely to Fall if Stock Market Weakens

The NZD USD appears to be weaker than the rest of the commodity-based Forex pairs.  Furthermore this pair is likely to get hit hardest should equity markets begin to turn south.  This current rally has been driven by speculation and demand for higher yielding assets.  Without support from improving economic conditions, this market is likely to follow the equity markets.

The NZD USD tried to take out the last swing top at .6126 but failed at .6112. This currency pair continues to lag behind the rest of the commodity-based Forex markets. This reflects the notion that the New Zealand economy still remains too weak to support prices at current levels. Even if this pair does penetrate .6126, it will most likely be short-covering which drives it higher rather than new buying. 

Developing weakness in the equity markets has the NZD USD set up for a sharp decline if traders once again become risk averse. Short-term there is minor support at .5972 but breaking this price would be a sign of lower prices to follow. The swing chart turns down on a trade through .5832. This is only likely to happen if the stock market gets hit hard to the downside.