Weekly Economics Analysis by Lloyds TSB

We are expecting a small upward revision to US Q1 GDP in the second estimate based on a slightly more positive contribution from net exports.

US Q1 GDP second estimate and German IFO survey feature

We are expecting a small upward revision to US Q1 GDP in the second estimate based on a slightly more positive contribution from net exports. However, the depth of GDP contraction will have remained historically steep, see chart 1. Also this week, we are looking for a second consecutive monthly rise in the key German IFO business survey.

 This mirrors other European surveys that show the region’s recession is easing, but output still contracting, see chart 2. In addition, a plethora of speeches by ECB President Trichet and members including Weber, will be interpreted for comments on incoming data and clues about the likely impact of economic developments on economic policy. In addition, the US Treasury has a heavy auction schedule of $101bn of notes, while the outcome of the UK DMOs £1.25bn sale of 1.25% gilts due 2032 will be closely monitored following financial market concern over S&P’s medium-term debt downgrade. UK and US markets are closed on Monday.

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