Euro Needs More Bullish News to Trigger Upside Breakout

There has been no follow-through to the downside in the EUR USD after yesterday’s closing price reversal top at 1.4290. Technically, this pair could have faced a steep decline if the low at 1.4119 had been violated.

There has been no follow-through to the downside in the EUR USD after yesterday’s closing price reversal top at 1.4290. Technically, this pair could have faced a steep decline if the low at 1.4119 had been violated. As it currently stands, the Euro remains in an uptrend but finding trouble pushing through the high for the year at 1.4337.

The lower-top, lower-bottom formation in the GBP USD is indicative of a weak market and a down trend. Yesterday’s reversal top and today’s follow-through to the downside suggests that this market can correct back to 1.6283 to 1.6212.

The main trend on the daily chart turned up yesterday when the USD JPY crossed the last main top at 94.78. There has been no follow-through to the upside because yesterday’s rally slammed into a 50% retracement level at 95.31.

News from earlier this week that the Canadian economy is improving continued to put downside pressure on the USD CAD. Today’s break has put the market in a position to test the low for the year at 1.0783. Oversold conditions may trigger a technical bounce from current levels.

The USD CHF remains inside of a 60 day range despite recent efforts to break through the lower-end of the range. Now that the low has been tested, it looks as if traders want to reverse and test the high end of the range. Look for choppy, two-sided trading on both sides of a retracement zone at 1.0754 to 1.0805.

Despite the strong rally in the U.S. equity markets this week, the AUD USD has been unable to attract fresh buying at current levels. This week the Aussie came close to testing the high for the year at .8264 but yesterday’s closing price reversal down indicates the selling may be greater than the buying at current levels. Look for an acceleration to the downside if yesterday’s low at .8108 is penetrated.

James A. Hyerczyk has been actively involved in the futures markets since 1982. He has worked in various capacities within the futures industry from technical analyst to commodity trading advisor. Using W. D. Gann Theory as his core methodology, Mr. Hyerczyk incorporates combinations of pattern, price and time to develop his daily, weekly and monthly analysis. His firm, J.A.H. Research and Trading publishes The Forex Pattern Price Time Report... More

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