GBP USD Could Accelerate Under 1.6273

The Bank of England is dominating the news once again following therelease of its minutes from the August 6th meeting. If you recall, atthis meeting the BoE voted to expand its quantitative easing program.At the time this news came as a surprise as the majority of analystssurveyed had not expected an expansion. Since this news was released,the GBP USD has topped and started a down trend.

Daily Analysis

GBP USD

The Bank of England is dominating the news once again following the release of its minutes from the August 6th meeting. If you recall, at this meeting the BoE voted to expand its quantitative easing program. At the time this news came as a surprise as the majority of analysts surveyed had not expected an expansion. Since this news was released, the GBP USD has topped and started a down trend.

Besides the fundamental story, technical factors have also contributed to the decline including a weekly closing price reversal top and a change in trend to down on the daily swing indicator chart. The sell-off hasn’t been without a couple of retracements, however, driven by improvements in the French and German economies last week and yesterday’s news that July’s inflation remained flat at 1.8%.

The big story this morning is contained inside the minutes of the Bank of England’s August 6th meeting. While the original decision calling for an increase in the funds available for the BoE’s asset buyback program provided a shock to the market, today’s news that BoE Governor King was defeated in his attempt to increase the funding to $329 billion could turn out to be an even bigger story.

The British Pound sold off quickly following the release of the minutes which showed that King and two other members of the Monetary Policy Committee favored an increase in funding. A majority of the members voted 6 – 3 to fund a smaller amount.

Those members looking for a bigger increase argued that the smaller proposal was an example of “insufficient stimulatory monetary policy.” They cited that the risks of “another large stimulus might be less than the possible costs of acting too cautiously.” King and his two colleagues thought that the commitment of additional funds could be overturned if found to be “overly expansive.”

The majority of Monetary Policy Committee members who voted for a smaller increase in additional funding for the asset-buyback program said “the most immediate downside risks to the economy seemed to have receded.” They also pointed out that the additional increases effects on the economy were “uncertain,”, and that this increase risked “unwarranted increases in some asset prices.” Finally the members felt that additional asset purchases could “prompt a sharp rise in market interest rates that was unwarranted by the economic outlook.”

The GBP USD is selling off this morning as investors interpret the revelations from the minutes as bearish. The fact that some committee members felt the economy was weak enough to warrant a substantial increase in funding while another faction signaled less of an increase is being interpreted as a sign of uncertainty. Traders could also be losing confidence in the decision making committee’s ability to read the economic data. 

Technically, the British Pound has resumed its downtrend following yesterday’s one day set-back. A break through the low for the week at 1.6274 is likely to accelerate the move to the downside. Longer-term traders should set their sights on a correction back to 1.5271 to 1.4854.

Daily Chart

Click to Enlarge Image

James A. Hyerczyk has been actively involved in the futures markets since 1982. He has worked in various capacities within the futures industry from technical analyst to commodity trading advisor. Using W. D. Gann Theory as his core methodology, Mr. Hyerczyk incorporates combinations of pattern, price and time to develop his daily, weekly and monthly analysis. His firm, J.A.H. Research and Trading publishes The Forex Pattern Price Time Report... More

Disclainer: