U.S. Dollar Finishes Mixed After Giving Back Some Gains

The U.S. Dollar finished mixed against most major currencies after erasing early session gains against some markets. Early in the trading session, the Dollar was up as traders sought safety and lower yields following a report that showed China’s GDP was less than analyst estimates.

The U.S. Dollar finished mixed against most major currencies after erasing early session gains against some markets. Early in the trading session, the Dollar was up as traders sought safety and lower yields following a report that showed China’s GDP was less than analyst estimates. Some traders took this as an indication China was going getting ready to end its stimulus program early since the GDP report showed the economy was growing at last year’s pace.

Although China’s economic growth report set the early tone for the day, the inability to break the U.S. equity markets following yesterday’s late session sell-off sent short-scrambling and attracted fresh buying as aggressive investors sought higher yielding currencies. This caused a few currencies to close up against the Dollar and a handful to close well off their lows.

The EUR USD finished above $1.50 as traders bought the Euro after an early morning break. Traders are being careful not to trigger too much volatility in this market so that they don’t attract the wrath of the European Zone Finance Ministers. Regaining $1.50 after weakening below it throughout the session is a sign of strength. Look for traders to continue to try to build support above this psychological price level. As long as there is demand for higher yielding assets look for the Euro to continue to move higher.

The inability to break the equities and better than expected earnings reports from Traveler’s and McDonald’s helped the GBP USD erase early session gains. The main trend is up, but short-term indicators indicate overbought conditions. Nonetheless, traders continue to drive this pair higher on optimism that the U.K. economy is recovering from its recession. Earlier this week, the minutes of the Bank of England meeting suggested that the BoE’s asset buyback program is working and is sufficient enough to stimulate the economy out of its weaken state.

The USD JPY remained firm despite the recovery in the equity markets. Japanese traders appear to be nervous about equity prices and may have been paring positions in anticipation of a break in equities. This means buying back borrowed Dollars. The chart indicates the main trend is up with 92.88 to 94.04 the next potential upside target.

The recovery in the stock market and oil prices helped boost the Canadian Dollar late in the trading session. Throughout the day the USD CAD was showing signs of strength due to diminished appetite for higher risk assets, however, a late session rally in the U.S. stock market encouraged bullish USD CAD traders to take profits on their recent gains. The weakness in the Canadian Dollar is also being attributed to the statement from earlier in the week from the Bank of Canada that expressed concerns about the rapid rise on the Canadian Dollar and its negative effect on the economy. Technically, the main trend is up in the USD CAD with 1.0598 to 1.0691 the next likely upside target.

Speculation that China may begin to cutback on its stimulus spending raised concerns in Australia and New Zealand, sending their respective currencies lower. Aussie and Kiwi traders feel that a change in the spending habits of the Chinese government may hurt Australian and New Zealand exports. The late session recovery in the U.S. equity markets helped to pare losses. Traders should continue to watch for news out of China regarding a tightening of their stimulus spending. The charts indicate that the entire rally in the AUD USD and NZD USD was triggered by Chinese stimulus spending. If they decide to turn off the money faucet, then speculators may begin to take profits in their long positions.

James A. Hyerczyk has been actively involved in the futures markets since 1982. He has worked in various capacities within the futures industry from technical analyst to commodity trading advisor. Using W. D. Gann Theory as his core methodology, Mr. Hyerczyk incorporates combinations of pattern, price and time to develop his daily, weekly and monthly analysis. His firm, J.A.H. Research and Trading publishes The Forex Pattern Price Time Report... More

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