Aversion to Risk Drives Up Dollar

The U.S. Dollar managed to hold on to its gains despite the strong rally in the gold market.

The U.S. Dollar managed to hold on to its gains despite the strong rally in the gold market. While the weaker Dollar has been blamed for the August to October rally in gold, stronger gold is not expected to drive the Dollar to new lows. The fundamentals have shifted. The Dollar is getting stronger because of investor aversion to risk while gold is up because of central bank demand.

The EUR USD traded sharply lower after trading inside of a tight range for the past four trading sessions. Traders expect the European Central Bank to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1%. In addition, the ECB is expected to say that stimulus plans will remain intact until the economy starts to show signs of a full recovery.

Pressure was on the GBP USD this morning, but a strong surge in gold helped the Pound erase some of its early losses. Speculators are looking for the Bank of England to leave interest rates at historically lower levels while extending its asset purchase program.

The holiday in Japan helped to keep the USD JPY in a tight range. Aversion to higher risk assets is helping to bring investors back to the Japanese Yen. Thin conditions in the U.S. stock market helped contribute to a choppy trade today.

The USD CHF rallied sharply higher overnight and held on to most of its gains. The main trend turned up on the daily chart when the market crossed 1.0285. The quick pop to the upside today may have put this market into overbought territory. Look for a two-sided trade at 1.0285. If support can be established at this price, then look for the rally to continue. Profit-taking can drive the market back below this level but not damage the uptrend. .

The USD CAD opened higher, but the inability to break through yesterday’s high and the strong surge in the gold market encouraged selling. Higher metal prices and crude oil are good for the Canadian economy. If downside momentum continues, then this market could correct back to 1.0522 over the near-term.

The guidance offered by the Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that interest rates will remain stable for the next few months. This is news put pressure on the AUD USD, but the market still remained inside of yesterday’s range of .8905 to .9121. The longer this market stays in this range, the greater the impending volatility.

The NZD USD traded flat most of the day until the rally in gold proved too much for the bears to take. Although this market strengthened throughout the day it still remained inside of yesterday’s .7081 to .7267 range. Regaining a 50% price at .7159 is supportive for a follow-through rally tomorrow. This price should act as a pivot and control the short-term direction of the market.

James A. Hyerczyk has been actively involved in the futures markets since 1982. He has worked in various capacities within the futures industry from technical analyst to commodity trading advisor. Using W. D. Gann Theory as his core methodology, Mr. Hyerczyk incorporates combinations of pattern, price and time to develop his daily, weekly and monthly analysis. His firm, J.A.H. Research and Trading publishes The Forex Pattern Price Time Report... More

Disclainer: