U.S. Dollar Falls as Economy Loses 85,000 Jobs

The U.S. Dollar finished sharply lower on Friday following the release of a U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report which showed the economy lost 85,000 jobs in December.

The U.S. Dollar finished sharply lower on Friday following the release of a U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report which showed the economy lost 85,000 jobs in December. This bearish number surprised traders who were looking for evidence that the U.S. economy stopped losing jobs in December.

Economists were looking for December Non-Farm Payrolls to rise by 10,000. Most came to this conclusion because of weekly initial claims and other employment index reports. However, the ADP jobs data report which was released earlier in the week showed that 84,000 were lost in the private sector. Today’s report which included both the private and government sectors lost 85,000 jobs. This leads one to speculate that either the government has to start hiring, or it has to begin spending more money to create jobs in the private sector.

The EUR USD rallied following the U.S. jobs data report. This bullish move erased an earlier loss triggered by an overnight report which showed that the Euro Zone unemployment rate reached 10% in November. Regaining of the retracement zone at 1.4350 to 1.4319 is a sign of strength. Upside momentum could be building which sends the Euro back to 1.4680 – 1.4799 over the near-term.

The GBP USD surged to the upside but was only able to settle inside a retracement zone at 1.5988 to 1.6036. Uncertainty over the upcoming general election most likely limited today’s upside action. Traders remain concerned about the budget deficit and other fiscal issues.

The bearish U.S. jobs picture helped weaken the USD JPY. In addition, the Japanese Finance Minister retracted statements he made yesterday regarding his desire for a weaker Yen. Technically, the USD JPY fell back below a key 50% number at 93.13. Breaking back under 92.32 will be the first sign of real selling pressure. The weekly closing price reversal top indicates the start of a possible decline to 89.30 – 88.24.

Based on the short-term range of .9918 to 1.0547, traders should look for the USD CHF to weaken into 1.0212. Breaking this level is likely to trigger a further decline to 1.0143.

The USD CAD resumed its downtrend following the bearish U.S. jobs data report. The current chart pattern suggests that the next downside target is 1.0265. Stronger gold and crude oil prices are helped to underpin the market. Downside momentum could slow if the Bank of Canada starts to talk about the need for a weaker currency.

The AUD USD moved higher as weak U.S. jobs data report triggered renewed demand for higher yielding currencies. Friday’s intraday turnaround suggests the next upside target is .9321. Taking out .9265 will negate Thursday’s closing price reversal top.

The NZD USD rallied on renewed demand for higher yielding currencies. Regaining a pair of downtrending angles on the daily chart is a sign of strength. Taking out .7427 will negate Thursday’s closing price reversal top and should trigger more upside action.

James A. Hyerczyk has been actively involved in the futures markets since 1982. He has worked in various capacities within the futures industry from technical analyst to commodity trading advisor. Using W. D. Gann Theory as his core methodology, Mr. Hyerczyk incorporates combinations of pattern, price and time to develop his daily, weekly and monthly analysis. His firm, J.A.H. Research and Trading publishes The Forex Pattern Price Time Report... More

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