Rise in Stock Reignites Interest in Carry Trade

The Dollar is trading weaker across the boardexcept the Japanese

The Dollar is trading weaker across the board except theJapanese Yen. Investors are feeling more confident about the global economicrecovery and shedding safer currencies. Commodity-linked currencies are tradinghigher let by the Australian Dollar as traders buy ahead of tomorrow’s CPIreport. A stronger than expected inflation figure is expected to solidify arate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Strong demand forequities is reigniting interest in the carry trader which is pressuring theJapanese Yen.

Investor sentiment is up this morning, driving U.S. Dollarlower in the wake of strong earnings results from European banking giants UBSand Deutsche Bank. Investors are also selling the Dollar in anticipation ofstrong earnings results from Aetna, Inc., Anadarko Petroleum Corp., DuPont andLockheed although banking stocks are expected to carry the market today.

Today traders will have a chance to react to two U.S.economic reports: the Case-Shiller 20 City Index and Consumer Confidence. TheCase-Shiller housing report for May is expected to rise to 4.0% from 3.8%. Thiswill be the biggest rise in the index since September 2006. Consumer Confidenceis expected to come in at 51 which is down from 52.9. A greater than expecteddrop will fuel concerns about a double-dip recession. Strong housing data islikely to pressure the Dollar.

James A. Hyerczyk has been actively involved in the futures markets since 1982. He has worked in various capacities within the futures industry from technical analyst to commodity trading advisor. Using W. D. Gann Theory as his core methodology, Mr. Hyerczyk incorporates combinations of pattern, price and time to develop his daily, weekly and monthly analysis. His firm, J.A.H. Research and Trading publishes The Forex Pattern Price Time Report... More

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