Economics Weekly by Lloyds TSB

The US data calendar could hardly be busier. Top of the bill come August’s non-farm payrolls where we look for a total decline of 100k, albeit with a (modest) rise in private sector jobs. The US labour market remains a concern US payrolls to test market nerves – again

The US data calendar could hardly be busier. Top of the bill come August’s non-farm payrolls where we look for a total decline of 100k, albeit with a (modest) rise in private sector jobs. The US labour market remains a concern for the Fed and employers are reluctant to add to payrolls in a still uncertain economic environment. This theme is likely to feature in Tuesday’s FOMC minutes. The latter will also be watched for more colour on the Fed’s decision to re-invest the proceeds from agency debt and MBS. Beyond this, the latest ISM surveys will be published, with August’s manufacturing survey attracting particular interest after a sharp drop in July’s new orders index. Our ISM manufacturing forecast stands at 54.0. This week also sees the release of Conference Board consumer sentiment. Finally, after a wave of poor US housing market data, a decline in annual house price inflation is expected in Tuesday’s Case-Shiller data.

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