Aussie Stable as Asset Sell-off Subsides

The AUD USD is trading in a tight range overnight. Volume has been light and the market is trading inside of Tuesday’s range.

The AUD USD is trading in a tight range overnight. Volume has been light and the market is trading inside of Tuesday’s range. Unless this pair continues to break lower, a tight trading range usually suggests impending volatility which may mean the start of a short-covering rally.

The big story driving the Aussie lower continues to be the shedding of risky assets by investors. Worries about the Irish debt problem and its possible impact on the global economy continue to be the catalyst behind the weakness in the commodity and equity markets.

Irish authorities are scheduled to meet with officials from the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank to decide how to fix the country’s continuing banking sector risks.

The heavy hitters have been brought in because Ireland’s efforts to resolve its banking crisis haven’t helped stabilize the economy.

The experts from the EU, IMF and ECB are expected to suggest further reforms and stabilization measures to help market conditions normalize.

Technically, the weekly chart suggests that the key number to watch is .9651. A break through this level will turn the main trend down on the weekly chart.

Two scenarios are taking place and both indicate retracements are imminent. Based on the weekly main range of .8770 to 1.1082, .9476 and .9309 form a retracement zone. The other possible downside target is the retracement range at .9124 to .8875. This is formed by the .8067 to 1.1082 range.

On the daily chart, a downtrending Gann angle from the 1.0182 top comes in at .9862. Currently this market is walking down this resistance angle.

The developing scenario indicates the following: If .9724 holds as a low, then look for the start of a short-covering rally back to 50%/.618 of the break from 1.0182. This makes .9953 to 1.0007 the next likely upside target and potential sell zone. If the trend is indeed turning on both the daily and weekly charts then a secondary lower top has to be formed.

James A. Hyerczyk has been actively involved in the futures markets since 1982. He has worked in various capacities within the futures industry from technical analyst to commodity trading advisor. Using W. D. Gann Theory as his core methodology, Mr. Hyerczyk incorporates combinations of pattern, price and time to develop his daily, weekly and monthly analysis. His firm, J.A.H. Research and Trading publishes The Forex Pattern Price Time Report... More