Brent Crude unexpectedly broke 111.37 reaching the 111.82 target to take a profit on longs. We did struggle here as expected and shorts were held with prices holding below the stop of 112.00.
We could test support at 111.38/28 now to cover some shorts but if we continue lower we should see a return to 110.92/86. If we cannot bounce from here look for 110.45/28 as the next downside target and a good chance of a low for the day. A break below here however could lead to a retest of last week’s lows in the 109.60/45 area.
If we manage to make it above 112.00 we will have decisively broken the 9 month down trend as we look for the next target of 112.47. A push through here then takes us to 112.90 on the way to this month’s high at 113.29.
WTI Crude Oil tested 95.12/94.95 which acted as good support as predicted. We are holding below last week’s high of 96.04 being over bought on daily and short term charts but we are in a solid two month uptrend. A retest of tough resistance at 96.04/17 is possible today but we need to break 95.60/65 first. Go with a break through 96.25 looking for the next target at 96.92. Here we exit all longs and try shorts with a stop above 97.30.
We could come under pressure today to ease the over bought oscillators. Another test of 95.12/94.95 support is therefore likely and we cannot rule out a break below here looking for the one month trend line and 2 week 38.2% Fibonacci support at 94.40/30. Exit shorts here and buy in to longs with a stop and reverse in to shorts below 94.00. We then look to cover shorts and buy in to longs again down to excellent support at 93.48.
Nat Gas did break higher as predicted, through 3.529/539 resistance as we bought back in to longs looking for the next target of 3.596 for profit taking. We have now hit the target this morning and exited longs.
This is tough resistance and we can sell in to shorts from here up to 3.613 using a stop loss above 3.626. There is a good chance of a top here but if we break higher we will be buying back in to longs, looking for the next target of 3.684 to take profit on some longs, but there is scope for a move as high as 3.744. We exit all remaining longs here and sell in to shorts with a stop above 3.770.
If we do see profit taking now look for a drift back to 3.559/552. This could hold the downside today so watch for a low but if we continue to slide we should see 3.520 on the way to excellent support at 3.485/470. Exit all shorts and buy in to longs as we approach this area in expectation of a strong bounce. Stops needed below 3.430.
Gasoil is hanging on to gains but has not gone anywhere in the past week. We may be running out of momentum, although a test of recent highs at 964.50/966.00 could be on the cards today. This should remain very tough to beat just as it was no Friday and failure here today would confirm a short term top for the one month up trend.
However any shorts need a stop above 967 which should signal another leg higher towards 972.25/75, possibly 974.00. A push through here would then keep the momentum going for a test of tough resistance at 979.19 which may trigger some profit taking.
We have support at 959.42 then 955.59/04 below where it could be wise to exit any shorts in case of a low for the day. If we continue to slide we can try longs down to 948.83/947.96 but need a tight stop below 946.50. We will be looking for a test of 943.38 next before better support at 939.95/937.92. Here we can exit all shorts and try longs for a bounce with a stop below 936.