WTI Crude Oil hit our target 96.92 and topped exactly here as we exited all longs and tried shorts with a stop above 97.30. We warned this is significant resistance in an over bought market so there was a risk of a sell off in to the end of the week and we got it in the afternoon. The trade worked perfectly as we tested excellent intra day support at 94.95/85 where we exited shorts and tried longs with a stop below 94.45. The low was 94.95. The daily stochastic is warning of lower prices now in to next week.
We need to take profit on those longs now therefore, as 95.60/65 may cap the bounce. Another test of 94.95/85 support looks likely. It will take some time to break lower as this is strong support, but eventually we could see the next downside target at 94.21. A low for the day is possible here so watch for a bounce but if we continue lower we could find that 93.87/73 marks the low for a correction this week.
If we push through 95.75 we may crawl back to 96.20/40. If this does not cap the market we could retest 96.80/92 highs for a very nice selling opportunity. A break above 97.30 however triggers stops on shorts and keeps the 6 month bull running towards 97.75/95 then 98.58. Above here 99.52 looks achievable.
Nat Gas tested 3.513/3.504. This is short term 23.6% Fibonacci and 55 day moving average support and was expected to hold the low again and we did in fact bounce from 3.512. We now need to push through resistance at 3.579/3.581 to keep the up trend going. A break above yesterday’s high of 3.596 then targets 3.613 then the week’s high at 3.645 with a break higher allowing a move to the 3.684 target to take profit on some longs, but there is scope for a move as high as 3.744 next week. We exit all remaining longs here and sell in to shorts with a stop above 3.770.
3.513/3.504 is good support again today, but longs need a stop below 3.471 for a test of excellent support at 3.432/3.424 and the chance of a low for the week if tested.
Gasoil is trying to make it to the 974.00 target but has so far topped at 973.50. There is good momentum so there is a chance we can push through 974 later in the day and head towards the next target of 977.08/979.19. This is very tough resistance and with the market starting to look over bought, this area should trigger profit taking.
The last 2 session have been held by 965.00 with further support down to 964.50. This should mark the low for today again if tested but watch for a break lower as this suggests a test of the next support at 959.21. Below here presents a nice buying opportunity at 955.26/954.88. We expect a bounce from here but need a stop on longs below 954.00.
March Brent Crude has made it to the next target of 112.90/113.29 and topped. The failure to break this month’s high now signals weakness in the days to come. We are looking for a test of our first downside target of 112.28/15 today. Below here we could then test support at 111.74. A bounce here is expected so exit shorts and try small longs looking for profit up to 112.28.
However a break below 111.50 keeps the pressure on for our next support at 111.30, possibly 110.86.
112.90/113.29 remains tough resistance and could cap if tested again today. A push through 113.40 however signals another leg high with targets of 113.58/63 then 114.31/50.