Forecast for 30th January 2013
March Brent Crude drifted to our first support at 113.04 and bottomed almost exactly here at 113.07. As expected we then broke higher in this steady bull and hit the target of 114.31/50 bang on and again this level worked, marking the high for the day at 114.49.
We are struggling at our resistance of 114.50 and so a drift lower is possible to support at 113.85/75 where we should find buyers but a break below 113.60 could then see us targeting better support at 113.30. Very unlikely we see any further weakness so we would expect a bounce and a low for the day.
Above 114.72 we need to activate any sops on shorts as we could then push on towards pretty tough resistance at 115.13. We should start to look overbought here and so there is a risk we hit profit taking. However a break higher should then see us on the
way to 115.91/116.02.
Gasoil had no trouble breaking through our resistance at 977.08/979.19 and has headed all the way towards our upper target of 989.25 so far reaching to 988. There is pretty tough resistance at 989.25 and we are getting very over bought so we need to be cautious here. However we have the momentum to push higher so go with a break looking for 992.25 then 994.25.
Support at 979.19 then 977 looks likely to hold any profit taking today. However below here look for the 9 day moving average and yesterday’s low in the 972.25/971.50 area.
Nat Gas headed lower as expected to hit our target of 3.209/06 where we predicted a low for the day and in fact the market bottomed at exactly 3.207.
The bounce has already taken us to our first resistance at 3.300/310 which we predicted would be tough to beat and so far we have not made it through here. However a break above 3.325 does look more likely today for further gains to a target of 3.374/386. If we manage a push through this resistance we should close the gap at 3.426.
The downside should be more limited today with a recovery possible in to the end of the week. There is a little support at 3.24 then yesterday’s low at 3.215/207. Below here we hit strong support from the 5 month trend line at 3.175 which should see us bounce but a break could keep the pressure on for 3.122 then 3.087.
WTI Crude Oil finally broke resistance at 96.80/92 after trying for 4 days, to keep the 6 month bull running to our next target of 97.75/95. We did in fact top out exactly here at 97.82. This is very tough weekly 61.8% Fibonacci resistance and with the market heading in to over bought territory now we could see some profit taking from here.
We have support at 96.70/60 initially and this could be the low for today if tested as a sharp drop is not on the cards. Below here however we hit the 9 day moving average at 96.21 then short term Fibonacci support at 95.85 for a buying opportunity.
97.75/95 resistance should remain a struggle and could cap again today. However go with a break higher for 98.58 and above here, 99.52 looks achievable.