March Brent broke 117.07/23 resistance & hit the 2012 second half highs at 117.95. With the market so overbought this should hold the top side now and offer a selling opportunity but stops needed above 118.40. We could then stretch to 119.80/120.00.
We are looking for a dip back to 117.42 initially then 117.09. Below here there is good support today at 116.68/57 where we would expect a low.
Gasoil broke 1014/16 resistance as we look to close a gap at 1021 today. We are close and although the market is very over bought it is unwise to fight the trend so a break through 1021
then targets 1030. This is the high from the second half of 2012 and should be tough resistance so not worth holding longs any further.
Support today at 1015/13 but below here we could see 1008/07. This should provide a floor but
if we continue lower look for 1002/00.
Nat Gas fell just short of the 3.478 target which we saw as a good selling opportunity. We have fallen sharply through all support to test 3.265/258. We should see a bounce off here today &
could head back to 3.387 resistance.
However a break below 3.240 then keeps the market under pressure for a test of last week’s low at 3.207.
WTI Crude Oil did just hold 97.00 as hoped and did not trigger stops on shorts as we topped at 97.21. We then hit our target of 95.77. This market is setting it self up for a big fall but we need a break of good support at 95.05/94.90 to confirm the bearish topping pattern with 94.40 expected next then 94.05/90. Below here we should see 93.26 but we do expect to see 91.72 before we bottom out in the days to come.
Resistance today at 96.25/30 but above here risks a retest of 96.90/97.10. This must hold or the bearish pattern is broken and we should head back to 97.48, possibly retest 98.15/25 highs.