Elliott Wave Forecast: US Bonds Could Turn Into A Correction

30YEAR-DAYIL-sep-18-2013-1h

30Year US Bonds daily
I hate to say this again, but major pairs on the FX market place still have a very unclear price action and no direction at all on the intra-day basis. It’s probably “calm before the storm” ahead of highly anticipated FOMC press conference of the last few years, when Bernanke could announce tapering. Statement will be out at 18:00GMT and press conference will be scheduled 30 minutes later. So until then we may not see a lot of price action today. However, when any changes regarding the monetary policy will be announced then expect a huge impact on USD pairs, particularly USDJPY which has a strong relationship with US yields. US bonds will move strongly today, and will be interesting to see in which direction they will go if they will start tapering. Keep in mind that markets usually reacts the opposite than you would normally expect. During the QE period, interestingly, bonds were falling/yields rising so if they will lower QE now then this could cause the opposite reaction; higher US bonds in this particular example. That is what we called “buy the rumor sell the news” scenario.
Somehow, I would not be surprised by higher US bonds and reason is the following count on 30year US bond daily chart where I see five waves down in wave III with ending diagonal at the bottom that is pointing for higher prices. A daily close above 132.20 wave 4) extreme would be a bullish signal. If this count would prove correct then US yields will fall which will cause a bearish trend on USDJPY!! For now nothing is confirmed, especially not ahead of FOMC when anything is possible. Bonds could also continue lower if monetary policy remains unchanged, that’s why we need a close above 132.20 to confirm any larger reversal.

Gregor Horvat, based in Slovenia, has been in the forex markets since 2003. He is a technical analyst and individual trader who has worked for Capital Forex Group and TheLFB.com. He also is founder of forex services on www.ew-forecast.com. EW-Forecast.com provides technical analysis of the financial markets, highlighting behavioral patterns based on the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP). Website: http://www.ew-forecast.com