Ruble Falls Following US Sanctions Against Russia

Ruble Falls Following US Sanctions Against Russia

Last Friday, as part of the U.S. effort to punish Moscow for “malign activity around the globe”, the U.S Treasury Department targeted numerous Russian oligarchs, officials, and companies by freezing their assets under U.S. jurisdiction. In addition, the U.S. also prohibits U.S. citizens or entities from doing business with the sanctioned Russian entities. The Russian Ruble continues to plunge for the second day in a row by more than 4.5% after the sanctions. The Ruble’s 1 month volatility jumped 2.6% points to 11.9%, the highest among the world’s currencies after South Africa’s Rand.

The sanctions not only hurt the Ruble, but it also hurts the stock and bond markets as well. Benchmark MOEX Russia Index plunged by 8.7% on Monday following the sanction. Rusal, a Russian aluminum producer targeted by the sanctions fell by 50% in the Hong Kong stock exchange. Yields for the ruble-denominated bonds sky rocketed on the news of the new U.S. sanctions.

The new measures come amid deteriorating relationship between Russia and the West over the poisoning of Russian ex-spy Sergei Skripal In U.K last month. Mr. Sergei was killed using a military grade nerve agent that London and United States link and put the blame on Moscow. In addition, the U.S has also accused Russia of meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Then in the latest chemical attack outside Syria linked to Assad, President Donald Trump has warned of a “big price to pay” as he accused Kremlin sharing the responsibility for backing Syrian President Assad.
Ruble (USDRUB) Long Term Elliott Wave View

Ruble Long Term Elliott Wave

Long Term Elliott Wave view of Ruble suggests that the rally from all time low could be unfolding either as an impulse (5 waves) or a zigzag (ABC) Elliott Wave structure. The rally from Grand Super Cycle wave ((II)) to wave ((III)) has an extension compared to wave ((I)), with more than 161.8% extension, suggesting that it is possible that the move to Jan 21, 2016 high at 85.84 is only wave ((III)) and thus it should have more upside to finish wave ((V)) from all time low.

The decline to wave ((IV)) at 55.76 on Feb 26, 2018 falls between 38.2 and 50% retracement of wave ((III)). As far as USDRUB stays above 55.76, it can resume higher to new all time high in wave ((V)) or at least do larger 3 waves bounce to correct cycle from Jan 21, 2016 peak. Alternatively, the move to 85.84 on Jan 21, 2016 could be ending a zigzag ((a))-((b))-((c)) from all time low. In this scenario, the pair should be correcting the entire rally from all-time low and thus any rally should fail below Jan 21, 2016 peak (85.84) for further downside at least another leg.

ElliottWave-Forecast has built its reputation on accurate technical analysis and a winning attitude. By successfully incorporating the Elliott Wave Theory with Market Correlation, Cycles, Proprietary Pivot System, we provide precise forecasts with up-to-date analysis for 50 instruments including FX majors, Gold, Silver, Copper, Oil, Natural Gas, Soybeans, Sugar ,Corn TNX and a number of Equity Indices from around the World. Our clients also have immediate... More

Disclainer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market is a challenging opportunity where above average returns are available for educated and experienced investors who are willing to take above average risk. However, before deciding to participate in Foreign Exchange (FX) trading, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Do not invest or trade capital you cannot afford to lose. EME PROCESSING AND CONSULTING, LLC, THEIR REPRESENTATIVES, AND ANYONE WORKING FOR OR WITHIN elliottwave-forecast.com is not responsible for any loss from any form of distributed advice, signal, analysis, or content. Again, we fully DISCLOSE to the Subscriber base that the Service as a whole, the individual Parties, Representatives, or owners shall not be liable to any and all Subscribers for any losses or damages as a result of any action taken by the Subscriber from any trade idea or signal posted on the website(s) distributed through any form of social-media, email, the website, and/or any other electronic, written, verbal, or future form of communication . All analysis, trading signals, trading recommendations, all charts, communicated interpretations of the wave counts, and all content from any media form produced by elliottwave-forecast.com and/or the Representatives are solely the opinions and best efforts of the respective author(s). In general Forex instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose some or all of their initial margin funds. All content provided by elliottwave-forecast.com is expressed in good faith and is intended to help Subscribers succeed in the marketplace, but it is never guaranteed. There is no “holy grail” to trading or forecasting the market and we are wrong sometimes like everyone else. Please understand and accept the risk involved when making any trading and/or investment decision. UNDERSTAND that all the content we provide is protected through copyright of EME PROCESSING AND CONSULTING, LLC. It is illegal to disseminate in any form of communication any part or all of our proprietary information without specific authorization. UNDERSTAND that you also agree to not allow persons that are not PAID SUBSCRIBERS to view any of the content not released publicly. IF YOU ARE FOUND TO BE IN VIOLATION OF THESE RESTRICTIONS you or your firm (as the Subscriber) will be sued and/or charged fully with no discount for one year subscription to our Premium Plus Plan at $1,799.88 for EACH person or firm who received any of our content illegally through the respected intermediary’s (Subscriber in violation of terms) channel(s) of communication.