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| The Blogs |
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In honor of today's single-positive-data-point-driven-triple-digit
rally, I thought it would be a perfect time for another installment of
"Scenes from a V-Shaped Recovery":
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Yes, I'm sure it reflects confirmation bias on my part, but it's hard to
ignore Howard Davidowitz's thoughts on the state of the economy given
that he has in recent years been correctly pessimistic on prospects for a
sustainable recovery.
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According to USA Today, "Government anti-poverty programs that have
grown to meet the needs of recession victims now serve a record one in
six Americans and are continuing to expand.
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A documentary on the financial crisis which premiered in May, Overdose:
The Next Financial Crisis, is now posted on YouTube. Based on Swedish
writer Johan Norberg’s book Financial Fiasco, the film features insights
from Peter Schiff, Gerald Celente
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Although it does a pretty good job of keeping economic reality under
wraps, sometimes bubblevision TV -- er, CNBC -- slips up and brings
guests on-air who haven't drunk the Kool-Aid that many Wall Streeters
and Washington policymakers knock back on a regular basis. Such is the
case with one senior executive who reveals the ugly truth about where
things stand in "Most Executives Don’t See Recession Ending Until 2011"
[italics mine]:
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Most people would probably agree on many, if not all, of the core
services that a municipal government should provide. Arguably, the
majority will involve protecting life and property, including upholding
the rule of law.
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In a new paper, "Guessing the Trigger Point for a U.S. Debt Crisis,"
George Mason University professor and economics blogger Arnold Kling
speculates on when the U.S. might have to pay the piper for its many
(fiscal) sins.
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I've often made fun of the so-called smart money. Among other things,
many of those who hold themselves out to be experts on financial matters
failed to see the financial crisis coming and totally missed the boat
when it came to predicting the severity of the subsequent downturn.
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It's probably fair to say that many people believe the best days of the
American empire are behind us. That said, I would argue that the
majority probably see a gentle decline, spanning decades or even
centuries, with relatively minimal amounts of accompanying turmoil.
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"It's getting that desperate here in California. The numbers are not telling the truth."
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When people talk about how Washington has helped its friends on Wall
Street (and elsewhere) at the expense of the little guy, the discussion
usually centers on taxpayer-funded bailouts and the various liabilities
taken on by the government (think AIG and Fannie Mae) that are bleeding
the public coffers dry.
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It's amazing how many individuals and organizations give the impression
that they are the experts on their industry and yet, they don't seem to
know a whole lot. Take, for example, the National Retail Federation
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Although many factors helped bring about the worst financial crisis this
century, perhaps the most underappreciated was the widespread reliance
on bad assumptions.
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I’ve been following two threads on Forex Factory for the past week,
which is a rather rare occurrence these days. Both are fascinating, but
for different reasons.
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