During the first day of the previous trading week the euro dynamics was positive. The released information, that the demand for the state bonds of the Greek government grew unexpectedly, rendered substantial support to the euro. And the stable Euro-zone fundamentals also supported the euro. The German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey, which was published on Monday, turned out to be above the forecast, but below the previous value. Therefore, the EUR/USD pair established its trading day maximum in the range of the $1.4191 mark.

The speculations regarding the possible reappointment of Ben Bernanke for the second-term Federal Chairman position increased the investors’ willingness to take risks. Consequently, the American dollar incurred losses against its major competitors and high-risk currencies. The following diverse US fundamentals were published on Monday. The existing home sales volume for December turned out to be below the forecast and the previous month: the existing home sales volume dropped for 16.7%. At the same time the Dallas Federal manufacturing activity index demonstrated its growth compared to its forecast and the previous value: its factual level was 8.3% against the forecast of 6%. On the same day the sterling received support from the released statistics. In particular, the expectations for growth of the UK GDP for 0.4% pushed the pound upwards. Consequently, the GBP/USD pair established its maximum at the level of $1.6259.

The announcements, regarding the tightening of the monetary policies in China, which were released on Tuesday, strengthened the shelter-currencies and reduced the demand for the high-risk assets. And the published Euro-zone news, which turned out to be positive, did not succeed in supporting the euro. The IFO-business climate indicator in Germany for January resulted at the level of 95,8 against the forecast of 95,1. Consequently, the EUR/USD pair dropped to its trading day minimum at the level of $1,4070. At the same time, the US dollar consolidated due to the released positive news in the US. The consumer confidence indicator for January turned out to be at the level of 55.9 while the forecast was at the 53.5 level. The house price index for November resulted at the level of 0.7% against the predicted level of 0.2%.

The sterling was under pressure on Tuesday after the released UK data. In particular, the GDP showed growth only for 0.1%, when the expected increase was at the 0.4% mark. As a result, the sterling demonstrated a sharp decrease. And the GBP/USD pair dropped and reached the minimum of $1,6100.

We should mention, that the rating agency S&P reduced the forecast of the credit rating of Japan, which rendered a temporary pressure on the yen. At the same time the Bank of Japan left the principal rate unchanged at the level of 0.10%.

On Wednesday the euro stayed under pressure due a number of factors. According to the published information, the measures to combat the budget deficit in Greece were considered as insufficient. The demand for the shelter-currencies continued to grow, and the high-risk currencies – to drop. The consumer price index in Germany turned out to be below the expectations. The EUR/USD pair decreased to the range of $1,4000.

The negative US statistics, which was released on Wednesday, increased the demand for the American dollar, as a shelter-currency. The new home sales volume for December happened to be considerably below the forecast and the previous value as well: the factual level of 342 thousand against the 366 thousand. According to the expectations, the US principal rates were left unchanged at the previous level of 0.25%. As per the FRS announcement, the principal rates would be left at the lowest levels for the continuous time period.

The released inflation data in Australia on Wednesday turned out to be above the forecast, which strengthened the speculations regarding the possible increase of the principal rate. As a result, the Australian dollar strengthened considerably against the American dollar.

On Thursday the euro reached its 6-month minimum against the US dollar. The budget crises of Greece and Portugal continued to push the euro currencies downwards. The unemployment rate in Germany for January could not render any substantial support for the euro, since its rate grew and turned out to be at the forecasted level of 8.20%. And the EUR/USD pair demonstrated its minimums at the range of $1,3930.
The short-term positive moods at the market were a result of the announcement that FRS improved its forecasts for the US economy, and the suggestion of Barak Obama to introduce tax benefits aimed to support small businesses. But after the release of the US fundamentals, the high-risk competitors of the American dollar dropped. The Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index for December happened to be at the level of -0.61 against the forecast of -0.4. The durable goods orders increased only for 0.3%, when the growth was expected to be at the level of 2%. And, finally, the initial jobless claims turned out to be above the forecast: 470 thousand against the forecasted 450 thousand.

It should be mentioned, that the pound was pressured by the announcement of the rating agency Standard & Poor’s regarding the exclusion of Great Britain from the list of countries with the minimal banking risk. And the GBP/USD pair dropped to $1,6111.
During the last day of the trading week the euro continued to decrease, since the released positive US news influenced the dollar consolidation. In particular, the US GDP for the 4-th quarter increased for the 5,7% when the expected growth was only for 4,8%. As a result, the EUR/USD pair dropped to the level of $1.3861. And the GBP/USD pair decreased to its minimums at the range of $1.5982.