At its monthly press conference, European Central Bank (ECB)
President Trichet was assertive in calling for fiscal discipline in its
16 member states that comprise 330 million people using the euro. Asked
about bailing out Greece or other member states with severe fiscal
challenges, Trichet called the ECB collateral framework crystal clear, applying erga omnes
(equally) to every member state; no special treatment will be provided
to any one member. In the euro zone, member states may receive funding
from the ECB by posting collateral, but only if their debt is
appropriately rated by the major credit rating agencies.
Comparing
the euro zone to the United States in size and diversity, Trichet said
that there are always more competitive and less competitive regions.
Being part of the euro provides benefits, such as easy funding of
current account deficits, as well as a credible currency. Beyond that,
it is the responsibility of member countries to do their job to conduct
structural reform. It is in the interest of member countries to help
themselves.
Asked about any threat to the euro
because of Greece's problems, Trichet pointed out that Greece's Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) is a mere 2.5% - 3% of the euro zone GDP. In
California, which has its own set of severe fiscal challenges, the
magnitude of the problem is far larger (California's GDP is over 12% of
U.S. GDP). He went on to stress that euro zone budget deficits
currently amount to about 6.5% - 7% in the aggregate, compared to 12%
in the U.S.
Asked about the strong euro, he
reiterated the importance that the U.S. be committed to a strong dollar
and a monetary policy inspiring confidence. Given the statistics
highlighted by Trichet, it is fair to assume that he would like to see
more fiscal and monetary restraint in the U.S. While it would not be
appropriate for Trichet to directly comment on fiscal or monetary
policy in the U.S., he was more assertive than ever in calling for
fiscal discipline within the euro zone. He reminded member countries
that achieving deficit targets is not merely a goal or request, but a requirement.
He cautioned that tax cuts should be considered only in the medium term
once an exit strategy for fiscal emergency spending programs is in
place.
While giving very little guidance on interest
rates and upcoming monetary policy, a noteworthy comment of his was
that an increase in indirect taxation in countries' efforts to achieve
fiscal consolidation may pose a threat to economic growth.
Trichet
said that the ECB, along with other central banks and governments have
taken bold decisions to avoid a depression; the situation had been
very, very grave and there are still a lot of problems. Commenting on
financial reform, Trichet said the Asian crisis showed it is very
important that banking supervision should be independent of government.
While many are concerned about the rising spreads in
sovereign debt in countries such as Greece, we welcome the increased
scrutiny the market gives. If anything, spreads that had been too
narrow for too long have allowed euro member countries to postpone
structural reform. The market is finally correcting this key flaw in
the design of the euro. California in the U.S., too, shares a single
currency with millions of others; but California is rightfully paying a
higher price to finance its spending than other, more fiscally
responsible states. In the euro zone, fiscally responsible countries
are finally rewarded through a lower cost of financing their debt than
their less prudent peers. There is a limit to how much the ECB can
police fiscal spending; but the ECB can allow the market to punish
those who are fiscally less responsible. Only then are the incentives
provided for structural reform and fiscal restraint.