| Feb 11 2012, 20:52:34 GMT | Sydney: | 06:52 | Tokyo: | 05:52 | Barcelona: | 21:52 | London: | 20:52 | New York: | 15:52 | San Francisco: | 12:52 |
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Australian CPI Increase Heightens Chance RBA Will Hike Next Week
Market Brief
AUDUSD is slightly higher today (touching a high of 0.9045) after fourth quarter CPI came out stronger than expected at an annualized pace of 2.1%; above the RBA’s inflation target of 2-3%. Markets are now pricing in a 73% chance of another 25bp hike when the RBA convenes on 2nd Feb, which if realized would represent the fourth rate rise in as many meetings. The JPY is also stronger today as risk appetite remains nervous about the risk of China tightening policy, and reports of artillery fire between North and South Korea also briefly weighed on USDJPY and EURJPY. JPY bulls will also be encouraged by comments yesterday from Japan’s PM Hatoyama that there were no immediate plans to counter the recent strength of the JPY. In the meantime, Asian equities have had a mixed session after their 7 day slide; it is likely most traders will be wary ahead of tonight’s FOMC meeting.
Yesterday’s US data was encouraging on the whole; the Case Shiller home price index showed a modest gain (albeit lower than forecasts), consumer confidence rose significantly to 55.9 against expectations for a 53.5 reading, and the Richmond Fed clawed its way up to -2 from last month’s -4 level. Fed policy makers are extremely unlikely to make any change to the current level of Fed Funds tonight, but clearly it will be important to see whether they signal a future policy path that is misaligned with current market pricing. Today we will also get Barack Obama’s scheduled State of the Union address; likely to garner increased attention given the profound impact on financial markets he had last week when announcing plans for reforming the banking system.
In the morning session we will get the latest German CPI figures for January; expected to rise once again to +1.0% YoY (from 0.9% last month). It has been suggested that markets are starting to speculate that the ECB may begin monetary tightening before the Fed, and any economic data to support this scenario is likely to be supportive of EURUSD going forward. The only other release of the morning will be UK CBI distributive trades data; but otherwise expect flows to be light.
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