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Daily Forex View- 00:00 GMT- 5 July 11 Far East-Europe
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Markets took the S&P warning about the Greek debt situation in stride. Could it be that traders have decided to move on? Word that S&P has said it would consider any Greek write-down, voluntary or not, a credit event has the sent the Eurocrats back to the drawing boards to devise a new way to paper over what effectively is a default. The ECB especially has its credibility on the line. After credit agencies saw their reputations badly tarnished over the past few years, they seem now to have decided to play a principled role on Greece and will not participate in sweeping the default under the table. The EUR is trading mixed vs. the USD and on its crosses after opening stronger in Asia today. Australian retail sales released early on Monday were considerably weaker than forecast. The Aussie is weaker heading into the Reserve Bank decision on Tuesday. After the U.S. holiday today, this week sees an exceptionally active data calendar. The Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision and policy statement are Tuesday highlights. Check the Forex Forum over the day for an updated and ongoing discussion of current trading themes in the MARKET CHATTER continuous discussion thread. Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much). COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls.
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